Vol 3, Issue 1. Quarter 1 – 2026.

Many fans argue that The Godfather was the best movie ever made. I am not one who shares that view. However, there was a common role in the old gangster movies that always fascinated me. The “Consigliere” was the fellow who served as an advisor to the don and often had to present opposing or controversial views to help avoid bad or dangerous decisions or policies. This was a tenuous position, because instead of being fired from the job, you could be eliminated from it. So this advisor would typically end his presentation by saying something like, “Do me a favor. Take this into consideration.” Well, this is one of those moments.

Erika McEntarfer was head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from 2023 to 2025. The BLS released the July jobs report that showed that the labor market was slowing. The Don (i.e. Trump) immediately fired the commissioner and replaced her with a more loyal follower. This was the first time in US history that the head of the BLS was fired.

When I say that she was fired and replaced with someone more loyal, that is not simply speculation. I had colleagues at Johns Hopkins who were being considered for cabinet positions in the first Trump administration. They were directed to sign “Non-disclosure Agreements” that included statements about their loyalty to Trump; Not loyalty to the country, just loyalty to the Don. After replying that they were not comfortable making such a statement, they were informed that they were no longer under consideration.

Of course, since the new head of the BLS was put in place, the numbers that they report are not great, but they are a bit more to the don’s liking. Here is the simple question. Why do you believe those numbers? You are regularly told that “Inflation is gone”. Did your last trip to the grocery store convince you that this is true? Chipotle just reported that sales to customers with household incomes below $100K are falling like a stone as they wrestle with higher prices, and fewer job opportunities.

Along that line, other government offices regularly tell you that the job market is the best that it has ever been. Did your last conversation with a recent graduate still looking for a job, convince you that this is true? Your Treasury Secretary regularly tells you that this is the fastest growing economy in history. Does the number of small businesses closing in your neighborhood convince you that this is true?

Don’t get this twisted. I am not saying that I have better information than you do, because I don’t. I read the same papers you read, see the same government reports that you see, etc. But I do know this. If people are fired whenever they say a number the don doesn’t like, and they are promoted whenever they say a number that he does like, they will find a way to say favorable numbers. If that is the case, do you really know what the economy is doing right now? Do me a favor.  Take this into consideration.