Vol 2, Issue 1. Quarter 4 – 2025

It was the best of times – it was the worst of times. A tariff today – no tariff tomorrow. A cease fire at noon – a missile at 12:15. Musk is a stable genius – Musk is a complete idiot. A housing shortage this quarter – a collapsing housing market the next. We must end immigration today because it’s a drain on services – we must increase immigration tomorrow because we have a labor shortage. Over-population is the worst thing that ever happened – the falling birth rate is the worst thing that ever happened. I am the walrus, etc. etc. etc.

In the short term, equity markets are a voting machine. Every headline, every quote, every speech, every piece of economic data, every product launch, every election, every supreme court decision, and on and on evokes a response in real time.  This can be fascinating to watch for those of us who have no real life (many of us), and for those of us who don’t fully understand what is going on (almost all of us). With all of that being said, consider the 10 products or services that you will use almost every day. Now assume that every politician that  you wanted to lose – wins; that every piece of economic data that comes out this week is a “surprise”, meaning that it “beat” or “failed to meet” the “average analysts estimate”; and that every famous person that you respect said something stupid this morning.

Now ask the follow-up question. Tomorrow morning are you going to stop using that toothpaste that you used yesterday that was made by Proctor and Gamble? Are you NOT going to pick up the iphone immediately after you wake up? Are you NOT going to turn on that Samsung television? Are you NOT going to get into your Toyota to go to work? Are you going to close all of your accounts with Bank of America? If all of the news goes your way you will keep using those products? If all of the news goes the other way, are you going to stop using those products? The stock price goes up. The stock price goes down. But the value proposition remains the same. The managers, work with thousands of employees, suppliers, partners, and others to find a way to generate as much profit as they can, given whatever the situation happens to be, by delivering the product or service that you like.

When you buy a piece of the ownership of a company you are not betting that the government will do the smart thing, because they won’t. You are not betting that all of the news will be good, because it won’t. You are not betting that “the market” will behave in a predictable way, because it won’t. You are betting that the management and workforce of the most successful companies in the history of the world will find a way to make the best of whatever situation happens to be in front of them at the time. You know that some of them will do this poorly, most of them will do this in an average way, and a few of them will do this spectacularly. That is why you want to own a piece of virtually all of them.

We don’t own “the market” or care about the market’s over-reaction of the day because that is not the horse that we are betting on. In fact, if you follow my advice, you will place a bet on every horse in the race and accept your share of the winnings, because one of them has to win. You also understand that the fear of the masses is so great that most people don’t place the bets at all, or they try to pick a single winner to bet on. In most cases, they even pay a fee for the opportunity to do such stupid things. That is why the aggregate payoff is greater than the aggregate price. You don’t pick the right number on the roulette wheel because you are not a stock picker. You don’t try to outsmart the dealer at the blackjack table, because you have other things to do with your time. You simply buy the entire casino and take your share of the profits. You know that someone is going to guess the right number or draw the right card so they can always have a larger payday on any given day, and that is their right. But you also realize that when the casino wins 56% of the time; that the smart move is to take your share of those profits because being able to do that day after day after day eventually creates the best outcome that any reasonable person can expect.

You are not going to win this game because you own “the market” (whatever in the heck that is) or because your technical genius surpasses all of the other minds in the world (it doesn’t)! Your wealth is not going to come about because you are lucky, or smarter than Warren Buffet (You’er not!!). Your march to wealth is inevitable because the game is rigged. It takes advantage of the scared, the over-reactors, and the emotionally vulnerable – and as long as you refuse to join those ranks, you will succeed.

We are here to walk with you, and constantly remind you about 1) why you are here, 2) what you own, and 3) the role that you must play to get where you want to go!!!